President Trump is now lagging behind presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden nationally and in numerous key swing states, according to a series of recent polls.
Biden leads the president by 13 points in Pennsylvania — a state that helped springboard Trump into the White House when he won a surprise victory there in 2016 — according to a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday. It’s the latest bad poll for the incumbent as his disapproval ratings for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic continue to rise.
Joe Biden makes an unannounced stop at his childhood home in Scranton, Pa., July 9. (Christopher Dolan/The Times-Tribune via AP)
Per Monmouth, Biden is supported by 53 percent of registered voters, compared with Trump’s 40 percent. Biden also nets a large lead among independent voters, with 54 percent supporting him and only 33 percent supporting Trump.
Barack Obama won the state by only 5 points in 2012. Trump, meanwhile, was the first Republican to carry the state since 1988.
Crucially, according to the poll, Biden is up 19 points among registered voters in Pennsylvania’s major swing counties, which include the Philadelphia suburbs and northeastern regions of the state. Democrats have scored a number of victories in the state since 2016 and made inroads among suburbanites, a crucial and historically Republican-leaning voting bloc.
Biden has leaned heavily into his Scranton, Pa., roots over the past several months, pitching himself as a blue-collar, union-friendly candidate who, if elected, would bring billions of dollars in manufacturing back to the United States.
Speaking at a Pennsylvania metalworks factory this month, Biden accused Trump of abandoning the working-class voters who went for him in 2016.
“He’s walked away,” the former vice president said. “His failures come with a terrible cost and deep economic toll.” But a Trump victory can’t rely on Pennsylvania alone. The incumbent candidate is also losing ground in GOP strongholds Arizona and Texas, a warning sign that those reliably red states may not be so dependable this time around. In the last election, Trump won those states by 3 points and 9 points, respectively, and losing either could doom his reelection chances in November.
According to a slew of recent polls, Trump is likewise struggling in key swing states such as Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. The president won all five states in 2016, and Democrats have not won Georgia since 1992.
In addition to the state polls, a Yahoo News/YouGov survey released Wednesday found Biden leading Trump by 8 points nationally among registered voters, as the president’s attacks on his rival have failed to gain traction.
NBC reported that Arizona Republicans are feeling “pessimistic” about the party’s future there, and worry that divisions stoked by Trump to shore up his most ardent followers are alienating the independent voters he needs to win. A New York Times/Siena College poll from late June found Trump trailing Biden by 7 points in the state, which last voted Democratic in 1996.
In Texas, Trump is barely leading Biden, according to averages from RealClearPolitics, and a Fox News poll released late last month gave the Democrat a 1-point lead. Former candidate and Congressman Beto O’Rourke told Yahoo News in late June that he sees his home state as “Biden’s to lose.”
Arizona, Texas and Florida have all been ravaged by the coronavirus in recent weeks. Texas set the single-day record for new cases on Tuesday, with Houston projected to eclipse cases in Brazil. And hospitals in Arizona continue to report higher inpatient rates.
Health officials in Arizona and Texas are now readying refrigerated mobile morgue trucks as hospital morgues near capacity. Critics see the dramatic uptick in cases and the death toll as a result of Republican lawmakers’ urge to open up states too early, which could continue to hinder Trump’s chances in November.
In a meandering Rose Garden speech Tuesday, Trump falsely equated the rising cases nationwide to an increase in testing and said polls showing him losing to Biden were “fake.”
“I think we’re doing very well in the polls, and I think you have a silent majority the likes of which this country has never seen before,” Trump said. “This is a very important election.”